Okay so, it's no secret that China wants Taiwan back, and that it truly believes that such a pursuit towards the re-unification of Taiwan is righteous. Taiwan obviously thinks otherwise or at least most Taiwanese do, and it wants to remain a sovereign nation. Further, Taiwan is leveraging its association with the US to prevent China from re-unifying Taiwan by force, and China says it's none of the United State's business. The US wants all nations to be free and self-governed, as the US feels those inalienable rights of free people.
Now then, there have been some rather harsh threats and words take place over the years. One high-up general in the Red Communist Chinese Military stated that if the US were to interfere with and defend Taiwan against a forceful re-unification that China would use nuclear weapons against the United States. Yes, those are fighting words, but still, they were spoken from the heart, and that general really believed that. This was a few years ago, so have things changed? No, I would submit to you they haven't and that there are still many in the upper echelon of the Red Communist Chinese military who feel the same way.
Needless to say that China's comments with Taiwan threats and nuclear war with US if we intervene aren't helpful, and rather troubling, especially as China builds anti-ship missiles that are designed to take out an aircraft carrier, and known that the US is the only nation floating an aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean anywhere near China. The Pentagon also realizes that China has hundreds of nuclear missiles pointed at the United States, and is building anti-satellite missiles, stealth technologies, and is interfering in Middle East with our enemies, and pushing its weight around, throughout the world as it is on a world-wide scavenger hunt for resources.
Has the US been wise in diplomatic efforts with China? Not exactly and well, yes, I've seen some mistakes made through the last several administrations in this regard. China's need to fulfill their destiny and complete reunification is of huge importance to them. There are factions in the Chinese government who would go to war with the US over this issue. They strongly believe that Taiwan is rightfully theirs, always has been and that for China to be made-whole they must bring it back into their nation.
Taiwan is wrought with Chinese spies, and Taiwan uses entrepreneurs to give them information. It's too bad that commerce and trade cannot solve this problem. China sees the US a meddling in affairs that are none of its business when it comes to Taiwan and very angry about; missile defense, F-16 sales, etc. meanwhile China is flexing its muscle militarily all over the place; Sea of Japan, South China Sea, and incursions and territorial claims for fishing and drilling with Philippines, Vietnam, and causing challenges for the US with N. Korea, arming the Taliban, selling weapons to Iran, previous game playing in Iraq, etc.
Let's not forget the "string of pearls" and the tentacles, extra ports, maritime choke points, and their aircraft carriers, one done, two more coming. Meanwhile they have 6,000 spies in the US corporate and military defense contractor espionage, trying to hack into every computer worthy of information in the US, extortion using REEs and barriers to entry to get R and D and proprietary information, dumping on US markets to kill our industries, economic warfare, stock market manipulation.
Of course, they must be upset about their exploits in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Central America, Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia, and other parts of Africa as they hunt for raw materials and try to secure more markets. They had some setbacks, as many or more than the number of deals with positive outcomes. They play it different than the US, as we condemn our corporations for bribery, and they see it as 'just doing business' but are still finding themselves unmatched by our diplomacy. China has a trust problem with the rest of the world. It's going to hurt them, even as their economic forces grow, well if they don't implode due to bad loans, bad stimulus, corruption, civil unrest, inflation, pollution, energy scarcity, water availability, food stuff challenges, job flight, and let's not forget, China has a problem with over production too.
Back to the issues with China versus the US over Taiwan, many of the old guard see US intervention as an "act of war" and Mao's Grandson has yet to make his mark on history. Luckily, for the US, China has pissed off so many of its neighbors, and is not liked due to its economic and trade policies, that it would be biting off more than it could chew to screw with the US Navy, much less the rest of our military, and the US doesn't need NATO or anyone else for help, China may have more ships, but that's only for the first 30-minutes of the war, as there wouldn't be much left after that. And we don't need satellites to do it either.
Of course, China isn't stupid, so it's building up its military lots of money being pumped in, and they get a lot more for their money in their military than we do, due to our over regulation and cost-structures, bidding, politics, and nonsense here. Still, we easily are decades ahead in our advanced systems "IF" we don't curtail it under stupid US Administrations which don't understand the real world, or allow the Chinese to continue to steal us blind intellectually. Personally, I believe the RAND report on China's International Behavior was BS and really dangerous.
Although, it did perhaps serve a purpose prior to the G8 Economic Summit when that report came out. I do think the DOD has it right. Taiwan should not be forced to re-unite, unless it chooses too, and that may too be a possibility some day. Unfortunately, if that did happen one also needs to consider that the "selling-out" could easily have been coerced through political spies, extortion, trade promises, bribes, etc. - some of that is going on. I fear the US selling advanced weapons to Taiwan because there are too many spies and too much information leakage.
In fact, we may as well just send them the plans for Lockheed's missile defense system, the F-16s, and other technologies. I also worry about the South Korean F-15 Slam Eagle sales, but realize that too is necessary, just as selling JDAMs to Israel or assisting with the THEL is for Israel. So, I am not condemning the Taiwanese Military of Government, as they already are fully aware of the challenges, as is the US here at home with Chinese spies, corporate espionage, and constant hacking attacks (many intelligence analysts convinced these attacks are state-sponsored, as am I).
I fear this President, Obama is not on top of things, and is weak in this regard, and I believe he would bend to appeasement and make the same mistake made with NAZI Germany when they took over their first country. The US shouldn't be afraid of war, as we need the greatest military in the solar system. Likewise, we shouldn't make any threats, or act stupid either, another reason this particular article is toned down and just sticking to the facts at hand.
However, we must understand where China is coming from, and they "really believe" that Taiwan is their island and they want it back. China also knows that it could ignite nationalism beyond belief if it went to war with the US and it could easily afford to lose its 1 million man standing army without missing a beat. If China was at war with the US they'd have 100 million Chinese sign up the next day. That's a lot of will and hate focused on the US, and if the US is not strong in her resolve she will capitulate.
Now then, President Obama is considered to be a Black-American by the Chinese, of African desent, so they are very prejudice there, we cannot discount that reality, and believe, think, or know, he's stupid (regardless of the reality of naivety or intellectual quotient of the Obama the Nobel Prize Winner). Look how hard the China is trying to push around the US right now in economic and trade issues. There is no win-win trade with China, and that's what's caused part of this huge imbalance, the rest is really our fault for stupid regulations and bad economic policies. The South Korean trade policies of the past were the wrong model for China, it's too large, and China could produce enough for 5-markets the sizes of the USA. Unfortunately the GDP of the globe is only 3.5 US Markets combined.
Still, China has also made some really bad trade deal negotiation mistakes with the US, and now China has economically painted themselves into a corner with run-away 10% year-over-year growth, and they "could" make a few bad decisions which would invite a solution of pushing the US into a stalemate over Taiwan. I'd be against that, and if China wants re-unification, it needs to grow up and get the blessing of Taiwan first. Taiwan is a sovereign nation, it is not at war with anyone. It appears, at least many analysts believe that China is taking a long-term approach to their ultimate goal of re-unification, or maybe they are just holding that card out there, and really have lost interest. I would tend to believe the former argument judging by their actions.
Although Taiwan is not perfect in every regard the US "must" honor freedom, liberty, and the sovereignty of free-peoples and free-trade. Taiwan is our friend and ally, and if anyone went to war against them, we should stand up, alone if necessary. Further, if anyone attacked China, we should rightfully protect it too, even if China refused our help, we should do whatever it takes to end a conflict with our largest trading partner if such an event did take place. After all, China and the US are allies too. We should be acting as such, that goes for both countries - so we need grownups at the table from here on out.
If China gets away with forcing re-unification by force, and the US doesn't stand up, it would be living in hypocrisy of all its ideals, and that's a challenge too. Thus, is China does attempt to militarily force a Taiwanese takeover the US must stand up, of course, Taiwan needs to stand up too and discharge those spies and corruption influences allowing China to take Taiwan through the back door too. I could easily see the Taiwan People's mood change and thus, internally vote for a re-unification, or statehood trial-period. If so, and if those elections are legit, the US would have to honor that and then there is no problem.
Not that it would make me any happier, but all is well that ends well, I guess. The only lesson perhaps is that saying; "Be careful what you wish for" or vote for if that were to be the case? As far as I am concerned, China will never have the military ability to protect anything that the United States Military deems to be a legitimate target. There is no defense which will ever match that of the minds of the American Military Innovation Class. We can defend Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, India, or any of our allies without question if push comes to shove, but we must also realize as a nation that often; "discretion is the better part of valor," a lesson we seem to continually be relearning.
Now then, I totally agree that China is a long-term thinker with regards to their unification with Taiwan, but their focus there is hurting their progress too. The conclusion is simple, and our policy should go something like this; Taiwan remains a sovereign nation for as long as it chooses to be and we must stand by their right to control their destiny, just as we must stand by China if someone were to encroach there. All nations should avoid war, but if there is a war, my nation must win, decisively! Absolutely, without remorse, without hesitation, and complete victory regardless of the expense to the enemy, peace through strength, because we are The United States of America, and we must live as that example to the Free World. If anyone has any questions, I can take them now.
Lance Winslow is a retired Founder of the Online Think Tank.
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